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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, noting that if our discussion went well, he might welcome us into Downing Street for another conversation next year.

There is never truly downtime for those in the top job. Shortly before we sat down, Starmer had been speaking with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to work out what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his close ally, US President Donald Trump, had just attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than usual, had ended, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had a kind of a refresh. Perhaps even just a little a rest with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

This seemed to have left him in better spirits than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they reckon his fortunes are set to improve?

Leadership Questions

The grisly reality for the PM is that many of his party members believe he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would rather gamble and remove him in 2026.

However Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "judged at the poll", arguing no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 may be for Labour to switch its leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I aim to guide the party," he declared.

The May Elections

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – to some extent. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no circumstances under which he would step down, should one of his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to explain his low poll ratings by saying the voters was reasonably anxious for things to improve. He tried to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be distinct.

The economic situation would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the government put in place during their first choppy year began to take effect.

• He vowed to close asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he did not set a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it was not a certainty, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now talking about how to coordinate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have communicated with greater vigour than observed from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing calls from many directions for a bolder strategy, with much more political clarity, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his points were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political trouble, is a different approach required a new narrative?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as planned.

The Prime Minister's problems are not only because governing is difficult, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an controversy when past remarks he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting evident political dangers as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president entails a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the idea he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Critics demanded condemn it before we spoke. And the government is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also long been bubbling pressure in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new specific plan to integrate further with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European market – will likely elicit protests that he is breaking his pledge never to try to reverse the decisions that followed Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy many on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to