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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."